Agenda SP + Verde: São Paulo's Pre-COP30 Summit Sets the Stage for Brazil's Green Transition
By Ana Bertazzo Lemos, Center for Sustainable Finance at CATÓLICA-LISBON
São Paulo, November 10th, 2025
As COP30 begins in Belém, last week's Agenda SP + Verde Summit in São Paulo (November 4-5) demonstrated that Brazil's preparations for hosting the world's most important climate conference extend far beyond the Amazon. Organized by the São Paulo state government, the two-day event brought together government officials, private sector leaders, academia, and civil society to address the financial, regulatory, and social dimensions of Brazil's green transition.
The Climate Solutions Forum attended with particular focus on the green finance track, where discussions revealed both the ambitious scope of Brazil's sustainability agenda and the practical challenges of implementation.
The Future of Finance is Sustainable
"In the future, there will be no finance that isn't sustainable," declared Ricardo Brito from Desenvolve SP, capturing the prevailing sentiment across panels. This isn't aspirational thinking - it's backed by concrete commitments. Desenvolve SP announced R$300 million in investments for 2025, specifically targeting funds focused on environmental and social outcomes.
But the discussion went deeper than capital availability. Brito emphasized that "sustainability has locality" - solutions must reflect regional characteristics and needs. São Paulo's electricity matrix is already clean, but the state needs to work with its unique personality, including promoting ethanol and other locally relevant clean technologies beyond just electricity.
Brazil's Carbon Market Takes Shape
One of the most significant developments discussed was Brazil's emerging regulatory framework for carbon markets, expected to be fully operational by 2030. The Brazilian model follows the EU's cap-and-trade system, where the government translates NDC commitments into sector-specific caps and allows trading of allowances.
Mariana Oreng from ESPM explained the two-track approach: regulated compliance markets (Article 6.2 transactions counting toward NDCs) and voluntary carbon markets operating in parallel. The framework aims to address the credibility challenges that have plagued voluntary markets while creating new opportunities for bilateral agreements.
Chile's example was highlighted as instructive: the country sells credits internationally, attracts technology investment, but ultimately plans to compensate for these sales to meet its own NDCs. The approaches are complementary, not mutually exclusive.
Brazilian Sustainable Taxonomy as Strategic Document
The development of Brazil's sustainable taxonomy emerged as another critical piece of regulatory infrastructure. Following internationally recognized standards, particularly those from ICMA (International Capital Market Association), the taxonomy serves as a strategic catalogue - defining which projects receive which classifications and guiding global capital flows.
As one panelist noted, Brazil has been a leader in these conversations since 1992, but hasn't always had the opportunity to effectively shape operational frameworks. With COP30 approaching, there's renewed momentum to ensure Brazilian contexts and structures are reflected in global standards.
The Green Jobs Imperative
Vinicius Pinheiro from the International Labour Organization (ILO) presented compelling data: green jobs are among the fastest-growing categories globally, with an 18% increase between 2023 and 2024. Most growth has occurred in China, followed by the EU and Brazil. By 2030, projections indicate 24 million new green jobs globally.
However, the transition will cause disruptions. The oil and gas sectors are expected to shed approximately 4 million jobs. Julia da Mota emphasized that São Paulo, representing 30% of Brazil's economy, has both tremendous opportunities and responsibilities. The state's approach focuses on three elements:
Territory - Understanding local vocations and creating targeted programs
People at the center - Matching qualifications with market demand through training programs
Recognition of local productive chains - Building on existing strengths
The ILO framework emphasizes three pillars for managing this transition: social protection, social dialogue, and skills training measures. Critically, thermal stress and health impacts on workers must be addressed as climate conditions worsen.
Investment Perspectives: Risk, Returns, and Regional Context
Panels on green investment revealed sophisticated thinking about risk and opportunity. As one banker noted, "Those who make money are the vanguard - and also those who understand risks first." Three points emerged as essential for investment decisions:
Risk comprehension - Understanding sector-specific climate risks
Currency risk management - Navigating Brazil's exchange rate volatility
Local context - Financial partners who can map sector risks and deliver impact investments with regional specificity add the most value
The challenge isn't capital availability - when quality opportunities are distributed, demand follows. The challenge is developing the infrastructure, expertise, and regulatory clarity to channel capital effectively.
Energy Transition and Competitiveness
Multiple CEOs from major energy companies emphasized that sustainability delivers positive net present value and competitive advantage. The electrification process offers an important pathway for reducing emissions in production processes and vehicle fleets.
Brazil's electricity matrix, over 80% renewable, positions the country uniquely. However, significant opportunities remain unexploited. With global energy demand expected to double due to AI and data centers, Brazil could attract these facilities by offering clean energy production. Bhutan is already positioning itself as a data center hub - Brazil has comparable advantages with better geopolitical relationships across the US, Europe, and China.
The challenge is regulatory: creating legal frameworks to produce clean energy in Brazil's Northeast (where resources are abundant) and accommodate global demand. Today, clean energy is already cheaper than fossil fuels - the issue is connecting production locations with consumption needs.
The Tipping Points We Cannot Ignore
Pedro Saad emphasized viewing climate through a socio-environmental lens rather than purely environmental. The Stockholm Institute's nine planetary boundaries framework was referenced, with particular concern about tipping points. Carlos Nobre's research on the Amazon, agricultural impacts, and "flying rivers" illustrates how deforestation in one region affects water cycles nationwide.
The Cerrado, despite being less charismatic than the Amazon, functions as Brazil's water box and demands urgent attention. The challenge is avoiding biome degradation while recognizing that 70% of global solar and wind potential lies in the Global South.
Technology, Transparency, and Trust
The relationship between regulation and technology sparked an important debate. As Caio noted, regulation serves as the driver of transparency, while technology enables markets by eliminating subjectivity. The sequence matters: technology follows regulation, not the reverse.
However, technology alone doesn't guarantee trust. Gabriela Rodrigues emphasized that for COP30, beyond financing (the focus of Baku), Brazil needs to prioritize legal certainty. The collapse of major carbon credit companies due to fraud has undermined confidence. Marcus Nakagawa argued that Brazil needs to channel its intelligence toward enhancing control and verification rather than finding loopholes, while implementing rigorous PDCA cycles and external audits.
Critical Implementation Gaps
Despite ambitious frameworks, significant gaps remain:
Technical Capacity: Implementation of IFRS S1 and S2 standards requires technical personnel that Brazil currently lacks - both within companies to produce reports and externally to verify them.
Measurement and Scaling: While investment flows to some projects, efforts remain disconnected and unscaled. The carbon agenda advances along two tracks - efficiency and nature regeneration - but coordination is insufficient.
Misaligned Priorities: Some recent energy discussions focus on needs that aren't primarily Brazil's, such as green hydrogen production for export. With over half of Brazil's population lacking access to basic sanitation, domestic priorities require attention before addressing external demands.
The Economic Case for Conservation
Mariana Oreng presented compelling economics: carbon prices range from $20-100 per ton of CO2. Brazilian economist José Shankman's research suggests that if Brazil receives just $12 per ton for avoided emissions, degraded areas could be recovered within 13 years. The economic case supports the transition.
Pedro added that agriculture produces not just food but also fiber and energy. The primary challenge is recovering degraded areas - initiatives from organizations like BSE and Bayer demonstrate this is possible, but scaling requires coordinated action from multiple agents capable of measuring impact.
South-South Collaboration and Global Dynamics
The geopolitical context cannot be ignored. China's clean energy production exceeds the rest of the world combined, and other countries are following. Brazil's relationships across major powers - 50 years with China, strong ties with the US and Europe - position it uniquely.
However, serious concerns exist about US participation at COP30. As one panelist bluntly stated, "If they come to COP, they come to disrupt."
Brazil enters COP30 with a clear agenda: First, ensuring forest communities receive resources to keep forests standing. Second, recognizing that there is no energy transition without energy justice. The UN turns 80 this year - multilateral cooperation remains our best experience for addressing global challenges.
Looking Ahead to COP30
The Agenda SP + Verde Summit demonstrated that Brazil's preparation for COP30 involves substantive work across regulatory frameworks, financial mechanisms, labor transitions, and technological infrastructure. São Paulo's focus on green finance, jobs, and regulatory architecture complements the Amazon-focused narratives that will dominate global attention in Belém.
The challenges are clear: building technical capacity, ensuring verification and transparency, scaling disconnected initiatives, and maintaining focus on domestic priorities while engaging with international opportunities. But the commitment is equally clear: Brazil is positioning itself not just to host COP30, but to lead by example in implementing the green transition its geography and resources make possible.
As COP30 begins, the work done in São Paulo last week provides a foundation - demonstrating that Brazil's climate leadership extends beyond the rainforest to include financial innovation, labor policy, and regulatory development. The question now is whether these pre-COP commitments translate into the transformative action the moment demands.
The Agenda SP + Verde Summit was held November 4-5, 2024, in São Paulo, organized by the São Paulo state government as part of pre-COP30 preparations.
